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Potential Risk Assessments and Spatial-temporal Patterns of Wind-blown Sand Disaster

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【Author in Chinese】 王玉竹

【Supervisor】 王小平

【Author's Information】 兰州交通大学, 地图学与地理信息系统, 2020, 硕士

【Abstract in Chinese】 风沙灾害属于一种典型的风力次生灾害,其危害范围非常广,尤其在农业、牧业、交通和生态环境等领域。近年来,随着全球气候逐渐变暖以及不合理的利用水土资源,中国北方干旱和半干旱区的风沙灾害日趋加重、损失持续增加,严重影响着当地社会经济与生态环境的可持续发展。目前对于风沙灾害评估不仅研究成果偏少,而且存在评估数据选取不合理的问题,导致评估结果的准确性较低。鉴于此,本文基于风沙灾害的形成机理和致灾特点,结合灾害学基本理论,利用时间序列2000/2005/2010/2015/2018的遥感数据和统计数据,采用主观和客观相结合的方法,建立了3因子14指标的风沙灾害评估模型,对新疆境内致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性以及风沙灾害风险性的时空格局进行了研究,同时分析了产生这种格局的原因。主要结论如下:(1)致灾因子危险性的空间分布特征表明新疆境内高危险性区域主要分布在风力强劲、沙源丰富的塔克拉玛干和库姆塔格沙漠腹地;年际变化趋势表明近20年研究区致灾因子的危险性分布明显不均,递增和递减区域相互交错,显著性递增区域主要集中在巴音郭楞蒙古自治州,显著性递减区域主要集中在和田、喀什以及克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州境内。(2)孕灾环境敏感性空间格局表明新疆地区高敏感性区域主要集中在降水不足、植被稀疏的沙漠戈壁地区,敏感性较低的区域则在降水充沛、植被茂盛的天山山区、塔额盆地、阿尔泰山以及塔克拉玛干沙漠边缘的绿洲地区;年际变化趋势表明近20年来研究区孕灾环境的敏感性总体上处于平稳状态,局部显著递增区域主要位于塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘的玉田县以及昌吉市北缘,而局部显著递减区主要分布在吐鲁番东南。(3)承灾体易损性空间分布特点显示新疆境内主要以极低易损性为主,较高易损性区域主要分布在经济发达、城镇化水平高、人口密度大的乌鲁木齐、克拉玛依、哈密等城市附近以及耕地面积广布、农业相对发达的莎车、泽普等县区;年际变化趋势揭示近20年研究区承灾体易损性程度总体上呈增强趋势。(4)新疆境内风沙灾害极高风险区域可概括为三种类型:资源型、农业型和城市型。资源型主要位于沙漠腹地的石西、彩南、轮南、依奇克里克以及塔中等油田基地;农业型主要位于风沙活动强烈、农耕经济为主的洛浦县、策勒县、于田县、且末县和尉犁县;城市型位于毗邻沙漠、经济发达、人口密度高的吐鲁番、库尔勒和克拉玛依市。此外,年际变化趋势表明,近20年研究区风沙灾害的危害程度总体上呈增强趋势,且南疆的趋势强于北疆和东疆。本文在致灾因子评估中采用主客观结合法,承灾体易损性评估中引入灯光数据和路网数据,一定程度上改进了传统风沙灾害致灾因子评估主观性较强、承灾体易损性数据较难反映内部差异等不足,从而提高了风沙灾害评估的准确性。此外,本文还补充了研究区风沙灾害评估的研究成果,能够为新疆区划风沙灾害风险区、调整和优化土地资源、指导灾害防治对策等提供参考,具有重大的实践意义。

【Abstract】 Wind-blown sand disaster is a typical wind secondary disaster,its damage range is very wide,especially in agriculture,animal husbandry,transportation and ecological environment and other fields.In recent years,the wind-blown sand disasters in arid and semi-arid areas in northern China were getting worse and the losses were increasing with the gradual warming of the global climate and the unreasonable utilization of water and soil resources,which seriously affects the sustainable development of local social economy and ecological environment.At present,there are not only few research achievements in the assessment of wind-blown sand disasters,but also the problem of unreasonable selection of assessment data,which leads to the low accuracy of the assessment results.In view of this,based on the formation mechanism and disaster-causing characteristics of wind-blown sand disaster,combined with the basic theory of disaster science,the wind-blown sand disaster evaluation model including 14 indexes of 3 factors were established using remote sensing data and statistical data in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2018.And the spatial-temporal patterns on the danger of disaster-causing factors,the sensitivity of disaster-causing environment,the vulnerability disaster-bearing body,and the risk of wind-blown sand disaster were studied.At the same time,the reasons for this pattern were also analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The spatial distribution characteristics on the danger of disaster-causing factors indicate that the highly risk areas in Xinjiang are mainly distributed in the hinterland of the Taklamakan Desert and Kumtag Desert with strong wind and abundant sand sources.The interannual variation trend shows that the risk distribution of the disaster-causing factors in the study area in recent 20 years is obviously uneven,and the increasing and decreasing regions are interlaced with each other.The significant increasing zones are mainly concentrated in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,while the significant decreasing regions are mainly concentrated in Hotan,Kashgar and Atux.(2)The spatial pattern on the sensitivity of disaster-causing environment shows that the highly sensitive areas in Xinjiang are mainly concentrated in the Gobi desert zone with insufficient rainfall and sparse vegetation,while the less sensitive areas mainly located in the Tianshan Mountains region,the Tae basin,the Altai Mountains and the oasis region on the edge of Taklamakan Desert with abundant rainfall and lush vegetation.The interannual variation trend shows that the sensitivity of disaster-causing environment in the study area is generally stable in the past 20 years.The local significant increasing areas mainly located in Yutian county on the southern edge of the Taklamakan Desert and the northern edge of Changji city,while the local significant decreasing areas are mainly distributed in the southeast of Turpan.(3)Spatial distribution characteristics of the vulnerability disaster-bearing body show that the very low vulnerability is the majority in Xinjiang,the high vulnerability areas are mainly distributed near the city such as Urumqi,Karamay and Hami with developed economy,high level of urbanization,large population density as well as Shache County and Zepu County with a wide area of arable land,relatively developed agriculture.The interannual variation trend reveals that the vulnerability degree of disaster-bearing body in the study area has generally been increasing in recent 20 years.(4)The extremely high-risk areas of wind-blown sand disaster in Xinjiang can be summarized into three types: resource-based,agricultural-based and urban-based.The resource-based are mainly located in the oil field base of the desert hinterland,such Shixi,Cainan,Lunnan,Ichi Crick and Tazhong.The agricultural-based is mainly located in Luopu county,Cele county,Yutian county,Qiemo county and Yuli county with strong wind sand activity and agricultural economy.The urban-based is located in Turpan,Korla and Karamay,which are adjacent to the desert and have developed economy and high population density.In addition,the trend of interannual variation shows that the damage degree of wind-blown sand disaster in the study area in recent 20 years is generally increasing,and the trend of the southern Xinjiang is stronger than that of the northern Xinjiang and the Eastern Xinjiang.In this paper,the subjective and objective combination method is used in the assessment on the danger of disaster-causing factors,and light data and road network data are introduced into vulnerability assessment of disaster-bearing body,which improved some deficiencies,such as strong subjectivity in the traditional assessment of the danger of disaster-causing factors and reflecting poorly internal differences on the vulnerability disaster-bearing body,thus improving the accuracy of wind-blown sand disaster assessment.In addition,this paper also supplements the research results of wind-blown sand disaster assessment in the study area,which can provide guidance and reference for the regionalization of wind-blown sand disaster risk area in Xinjiang,the adjustment and optimization of land resources,and guiding disaster prevention and control countermeasures,etc.,which has great practical significance.

【Keywords in Chinese】 新疆风沙灾害风险评估
【Key words】 XinjiangWind-blown sand disasterRisk assessment
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