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Industrial Diversification in China

【Author in Chinese】 林毅夫龙小宁张晓波

【Author】 Justin Yifu Lin;Cheryl Xiaoning Long;Xiaobo Zhang;National School of Development,Peking University;The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University;

【Institution】 北京大学国家发展研究院厦门大学王亚南研究院

【Abstract in Chinese】 在一篇经典文章中,Imbs and Wacziarg(2003)提出在经济发展的过程中,产业集中度服从一个U型模式,先多元化再专业化。通过对1995年中国工业普查和2004年中国经济普查结果的仔细分析,本文发现中国的产业事实上是更加专业化了。从1995年到2004年,无论是国家层面还是地区层面上,中国经济并没有变为更多元化。由于市场规模巨大,尽管区域和国家的专业化程度在不断上升,作为整体的中国经济还是非常多元化的。另外,中国产业的资本密集度增加了,资本密集型行业比劳动密集型行业以更快的速度增加了就业。看起来,中国釆取了动态比较优势战略来发展这些具有更大就业增长潜能的资本密集型产业。

【Abstract】 In a classical paper,Imbs and Wacziarg(2003) found that an economy tend to follow a U-shaped pattern in the industrialization process;that is,a country diversifies in the early stage of development before it specializes.Based on China Industrial Census 1995 and China Economic Census 2004,this paper shows a decreasing diversification in China’s industrialization.The expansion of markets and the incentive of local governments to promote industrial development are likely driving the trend toward specialization.However,the rate of employment growth in capital-intensive sectors has outpaced that of labor-intensive sectors.This suggests that capital-intensive industries have retooled their structure of production to accommodate more labor,in line with the PRC’s low capital-labor ratio.Overall,capital-intensive industries,in aligning with their latent comparative advantages,have witnessed faster employment growth.

【Keywords in Chinese】 产业集中度产业多元化比较优势中国经济
【Fund】 中国自然科学基金(项目编号71350002和71341002)的财政资助
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