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2000~2010年中国生育水平推算——基于“六普”数据的初步研究

Estimation on Fertility Level in China 2000-2010:Preliminary Study Based on the 2010 Population Census

【Author in Chinese】 朱勤

【Author】 Zhu Qin

【Institution】 复旦大学公共管理与公共政策研究创新基地

【Abstract in Chinese】 文章根据公布的"六普"数据,对2000~2010年中国生育水平进行模拟推算,并与往年普查及调查结果进行比较分析。结果发现,2000年"五普"0~14岁低龄人口漏登2 056万人,女性漏登率高于男性,1岁和7岁组漏登率最高;2000~2010年育龄妇女人数增长了7.86%,生育水平相对较低的35~49岁女性增幅较大;总和生育率经历了由降到升、再到稳中有降的过程,2000~2009年历年加总的总和生育率平均值为1.48。另外,"五普"低龄人口漏登并未导致此前一些研究认为的近10年"生育率被严重低估"的结果,由普查与调查数据直接获得的总和生育率与推算值之间的平均落差仅为0.09。在生育率低走、育龄妇女人口规模缩小且其年龄结构持续老化的多重影响下,中国人口年龄结构的急剧变化应引起高度重视。

【Abstract】 This paper estimates fertility level in China during 2000-2010 by using the population-shift algorithm and the survival backward method based on the 2010 population census,and then compares the results with those of the census and surveys over the years.The results show that the 2000 census undercounted 20.56 million people aged 0-14,among which the females were much more than the males,and the children aged 1 and 7 were more undercounted than other age groups.The number of reproductive-age-women increased by 7.86% in the past decade,and women aged 35-49,a lower reproductive group,increased by more compared with the other groups of reproductive age.The total fertility rate experienced first from reducing to rising then being settled with a slight downward tendency.The average total fertility rate was 1.48 over the years of 2000-2009.The study indicates that undercount of far younger population in the 2000 census would not necessarily lead to the severe underestimation on fertility rate over the past decade,and the average gap of the total fertility rate between estimations by this study and the results from the census and surveys is 0.09.Under the influences of low fertility rate,shrinking and aging reproductive-age-women,change of age structure in China would be sharp in the future,and an effective policy response would be necessary and urgent.

【Keywords in Chinese】 人口普查总和生育率年龄移算存活倒推
  • 【Source】 中国人口科学 ,Chinese Journal of Population Science , Editorial E-mail ,2012(04)
  • 【CLC code】C924.21
  • 【Downloads】1338
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