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一次还不够!——看待世界贸易崩溃和逆全球化的经济史视角

One is not enough! An economic history perspective on world trade collapses and deglobalisation

【Author in Chinese】 彼得·范伯盖吉克杨桃

【Author】 Peter A.G.van Bergeijk;

【Institution】 伊拉斯谟大学国际社会研究所(ISS)

【Abstract in Chinese】 作者认为,"一次还不够"——经济学论著仅仅研究一次事件,不足以作出有效的概括。经济学可以从自然实验中学到很多,而如果提高自然实验的频次,收获会多得多。本文为观察20世纪30年代经济"大萧条"及2008—2009年金融危机之后这两个重要的逆全球化时期提供了一种比较经济史视角。文章讨论了两次事件的异同,提供了逆全球化相关因素的实证研究结果,包括政治制度(体制)、经济发展水平(人均国内生产总值)和进口中制造业贸易的比重。作者的实证分析利用非平衡面板数据探讨了逆全球化过程中大量的跨国变动,这些数据包括20世纪30年代的31个经济体,21世纪头十年的111—143个经济体,研究涉及个别国家进口贸易崩溃时期(由高峰至低谷的变化过程)的逆全球化程度。

【Abstract】 The author believes "one is not enough"–the economic literature studing only one event is inadequate for useful generalization.Economics can learn a lot from natural experiments, but much more from repeated natural experiments. This paper provides a comparative economic history perspective on two significant periods of deglobalization: the Great Depression in the 1930 s and the period following the Financial Crisis of 2008/9. It discusses differences and similarities and provides empirical results regarding the correlates of deglobalization, including the political system(institutions), level of development(GDP per capita) and the share of manufacturing trade in imports. The author’s empirical analysis explores the substantial amount of cross-country variations in deglobalization by means of an unbalanced panel that covers 31 economies in the 1930 s and 111 to 143 economies in the 2000 s. The investigation relates to the extent of deglobalization during the period of importcollapse of individual countries(the peak to trough movement).

  • 【Source】 国际社会科学杂志(中文版) ,International Social Science Journal(Chinese Edition) , Editorial E-mail ,2017(01)
  • 【CLC code】F114.41;F742
  • 【Downloads】239
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